The Only Certainty in Life Is Uncertainty

It's March of 2019 and I'm at the Oregon FFA State Convention in Redmond, Oregon. Session is just starting and, with no time left for coaching, I take a seat in the crowd and watch excitedly as the officers I'd worked with over the last three months hit their first cues and deliver their opening lines.

Lost in the lights and sounds of convention, I don't notice that a mentor and family friend of mine, Brian Field, has sat down next to me. He leans over and asks, "Did your better half make it?"

"Good to see you too," I quip, "and before you ask, no, I haven't proposed yet."

"If you wait any longer she is going to find some guy with a bigger ranch and nicer truck than you have. I mean, for the love, Jason, what are you waiting for?"

This wasn't the first time Brian and I had had this conversation, and he had a point. Joenelle and I had been dating for five years at that point and I'd always known I wanted to marry her. What I hadn't told Brian was that every time I thought I'd made up my mind, uncertainty would creep in. I exhale, "I know, I know. I just don't know when you really know, you know? How can I be certain?"

Brian laughed. "Nothing in life is certain, Jason. If I knew every ewe I had would have twins, I'd sell the business and ranch full time. But I'm no idiot, and neither are you. Some things can't be guaranteed. That's exactly what makes them worth the risk."

That day I learned the only thing I can truly be certain of is that life will always contain uncertainty. The feelings of doubt, excitement, and fear I was experiencing when thinking about proposing weren't alerting me to problems in my relationship, they were simply signaling that the situation carried a level of uncertainty.

If we're alive, we'll face uncertainty. It could show up in deciding what to do after graduation, wondering how a relationship might pan out, awaiting a health diagnosis, taking on a new job, or even anticipating how a simple conversation may go.

Arthur C. Brooks, a professor at Harvard University, suggests that when we encounter uncertainty, we typically experience one of three emotional responses, fear, excitement, or deadness, the numbness that comes when nothing feels meaningful or at stake.

Brooks helps us decide when uncertainty is worth navigating and when we can remain anchored at shore. He suggests the ideal ratio is 75 percent excitement, 25 percent fear, and 0 percent deadness. "If you're feeling deadness about something, you're not going to enliven it."

I was excited about the prospect of marrying Joenelle, but fear kept me from taking action for years. What Brian reminded me is that fear is often what makes a decision worth it. Fear reminds us that the situation could go wrong. But it also tells us that if it doesn't, it will absolutely be worth it.

Not only is a certain level of fear healthy when navigating uncertainty, it is the signal that something meaningful is at stake. The alternative to stepping into uncertainty isn't safety, it's stagnation.

When we find ourselves facing uncertainty, there are two practices that can help us navigate it well.

Normalize the feeling

When we face uncertainty, we often assume something must be wrong. Remind yourself that doubt, fear, and excitement are normal responses when the outcome matters. Feeling uncertain does not mean you are making the wrong decision, it simply means the situation carries risk.

Focus on the next step

Uncertainty becomes overwhelming when we try to solve the entire future at once. Instead of trying to figure everything out, identify the next right step. Progress through uncertainty usually happens one small decision at a time.

Joenelle and I will have been married five years come this June. People often say, "When you know, you know." I disagree, wholeheartedly. You can never truly know anything. Even still, you can step into uncertainty and trust that the risk is worth the reward.

Fact

Research on decision making shows that people tend to overestimate the risks of uncertain situations while underestimating their ability to adapt to the outcomes. In other words, we are often far more capable of handling uncertainty than we think.

Action

When you face uncertainty this week, identify the next small step you can take rather than waiting for complete clarity.

Question

Where in your life are you waiting for certainty when a small step forward would move you closer to what matters?

Quote

“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.” - Albert Einstein